Joshua Tree Real Estate Market Update for June 2008
Well summer is here, and it is hot and humid! Along with summer, at least the last couple of summers, comes a slow down in real estate sales for our local area. It seems like people don’t like to trek around in 100 plus degree weather. But should you decide to brave the heat to go house shopping … you could be rewarded with a great deal!
As far as the June real estate activity … as a whole … wow, I’m sure some are glad it is over. In Joshua Tree, there were seven homes sold last month, compared to sixteen the year before. (A decline of 56%). Of those seven homes, two were my listings, and 4 of the 7 were bank owned properties. The average selling price for June 2007 was $223,406, while this June averaged $198,357 (a decline of 11%). Please keep in mind that this is a comparison of June 2008 to June 2007.
Here is a look at June 2008 compared to May 2008:
Joshua Tree Real Estate Conditions for June 2008
Joshua Tree Real Estate Conditions for May 2008
Some items to note, is that the number of listings increased slightly in the more active three segments ($0 – 119,999, $120,000 – 179,999 and $180,000 – 274,999). In those segments, Average number of sales per month increased, the average days on market decreased and remaining number of month’s inventory decreased, in all except the middle segment. Selling price % of the listing price remained constant.
In the two upper segments results were mixed. It got slightly better for the $275,000 – 449,999 range while the $450,000 and up range continued to really struggle.
What we really want to watch in these tables is the “Remaining Number of Months Inventory”. Watch the way that that is tracking: down is good and up is not. (If we get back towards six months of inventory the market is considered balanced).
Tomorrow we’ll take a look at Twentynine Palms numbers.
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California Association of Realtors® Market Outlook
On July 2nd, I attended our local Association of Realtors® luncheon with Leslie Appleton-Young as the keynote speaker. Ms. Appleton-Young is the Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors® (CAR). She was presenting her California Real Estate Market Outlook as well as touching on Riverside and San Bernardino counties specifically.
There was a lot of good information in her presentation. I am going to share some of this information which is very helpful in putting all this real estate stuff in perspective.
If you look at a graph of the number of sold detached homes from 1970 – 2008 you will see our cyclical real estate market goes through a series of ups and downs nearly every decade. How’s the current downturn compare to previous dips?
- 1978 – 1982: We saw a 61% decline in the number of sales, while the median price continued a slow and shallow climb.
- 1988 – 1992: There was a 25% decline in sales, and the median price remained stagnant or flat.
- 2005 – 2008 (to date): So far we have weathered a 45% decrease in sales. The median price held well until October 2007, at which point we have seen a sharp decline.
According to Ms. Appleton-Young, the number of sales (units sold) peaked in May 2005 and has bottomed out in October of 2007. There was a small dip in March of 2008, but we have seen gains in April and May. That is some good news! Prices are still declining, and will hopefully stabilize soon, and we still face pressure from the number of foreclosures on the market.
In January 2008 the unsold inventory (the number of homes currently for sale) peaked at approximately 17 months. In May of 2008 the unsold inventory stood at 8.4 months. Unsold inventory represents, at the current rate of sales per month, it would take this many months to sell the currently for sale homes, if nothing changed. Please keep in mind that this is for California as a whole. That is a bit more good news.
Some more good news is that in 2006/7 the first time buyer affordability rate was in the mid-20% range. With the declining prices, that rate has climbed into the mid-40% range.
We are not there yet, but things are starting to get better. We are still facing pressure from tight credit (lack of funds to loan), tighter lending/underwriting standards and lack of buyer confidence, but things are starting to look better.
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Some Items of Note
Help Stop Green Path North
Additionally, The Summer Tree Institute presents a new series, “Desert Landscape Workshops”. The workshops will be the 4th Saturday of each month from 10 am to noon, July through Novemeber 2008.
- 7/26 – Designing & Planning Your Landscape (Yucca Valley Community Center
- 8/23 – Soil, Mulch & Planning (Joshua Tree Community Center)
- 9/27 – Plant Selection (Yucca Valley Community Center)
- 10/25 – Irrigation (Joshua Tree Community Center)
- 11/22 – Maintenance (Yucca Valley Community Center)
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Featured Listing
61861 Morningside Road, Joshua Tree, CA 92252
Remodeled Home!
$159,900
3 Bedroom/1 Bath, 1,040 sq. ft. on .17 acres
For more information and photos of this home and many others, visit www.joshuatreeagent.com and select “Featured Listings”.
Dave Haworth, Realtor ®
JT Village Realty
Mobile: 760.898.4188
Office: 760.366.8642
Fax: 760.366.0111
Email: dave@jtvillagerealty.com
Web: www.joshuatreeagent.com
Blog: http://joshuatreeagent.wordpress.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoshuaTreeAgent
Preview Joshua Tree and surrounding area properties at www.joshuatreeagent.com.
