I haven’t posted in a while, which is disappointing to me and probably you. When one starts a blog, you tell yourself that you are going to post regularly … it’s just not so easy. At this point, with the current market conditions, I am a one person show. When you start prioritizing, blogging usually gets pushed to the back burner. So, I am going to try and get back on a regular schedule.
Part of what has kept me away is that I have been getting more and more foreclosure listings from the banks, with whom I work. Working with foreclosure listings is very time consuming, with the volume I have and all the reporting that is required. I would love to have an assistant to help with all the marketing, and posting the listing information on the several websites I use. Additionally, I am taking time, in this slow down to try and make my business more “Green”. While it is difficult setting up new systems and transferring information, the new systems have streamlined a lot of the process. In the long run, these “Green” measures have made life easier. The major system I have changed to is the RELAY Transaction Management system with electronic signatures. Relay has allowed me to:
Go mostly paperless
Keep all my files and the transaction files in one location that can be accessed through any secure web browser.
Customers can access these files as well, with a password
Customers can log on 24/7 to see the status of their transaction
I can give clients a final CD with all the paperwork at closing, eliminating a large paper file
With electronic signatures, we can sign paperwork quickly, without having to print out the paperwork
I think this will make our our lives much easier and I a really excited about it.
I don’t want to drag this blog posting on to you get bored, so I’ll cut it short here. In the coming posts I have so much I want to share, including how this economic “crisis” is affecting us at the street level, the foreclosure market in Joshua Tree, Yucca Valley & Twentynine Palms, the real estate market conditions (by the numbers) for Joshua Tree, Yucca Valley & Twentynine Palms and an unbiased look at the Presidential Candidates approach to Real Estate.
When it rains … it pours! Both figuratively and litterally. We have entered into the summer monsoon season and got quite a bit of rain the other day that caused some flooding and road closures. Thankfully, while it rains hard, it doesn’t usually rain for too long and the flood water in the washes resides quickly.
Then while it was very slow from late June through mid-July, we have seen a little surge the last couple weeks. I am currenlty negotiating on three different offers, and the REO Asset Manager with the Bank I have been working with continues to send foreclosure properties my way, including five new properties last week.
This has hindered my ability to keep up with blogging and sharing some good information. So please be patient and I hope to start posting the July Real Estate numbers for Joshua Tree, Twentynine Palms and Yucca Valley by the end of the week.
Today we’ll continue out look at the June 2008 Real Estate Market by addressing Yucca Valley.
Interestingly, looking at the number of homes sold from June 2007 to June 2008 shows no change. There was 21 homes sold this year and last year (9 of the 21 were foreclosures). The median price has decreased from $228,671 to $185,630 (-19%).
In the May 2008 to June 2008 comparison, I have divided the market in to five price segments. Here is the data:
JUNE 2008
Yucca Valley June 2008
MAY 2008
Yucca Valley May 2008
In the less than $119,999 segment, we saw an increase in the number of homes for sale (25 to 37) and in the remaining number months inventory (4 to 7.52 months) from May to June. (Remaining number months of inventory is how many months it would take to sell the current inventory of unsold homes, based on the current average of homes sold per month, if nothing were to change). While the average days on market remained unchanged (128 days), the average number of sales per month (6.25 to 4.92 homes) and selling price percentage of list price ( 92% to 91%) decreased. This indicates further softening in this segment.
In the $120,000 to $179,999 segment the homes for sale increased to 92 from 72 homes. Average number of sales per month increased to 7.83 homes from 6.5 homes. Remaining number of months inventory increased to 11.75 months from 11.23 months. All else remained the same. In short, it was mostly stagnant though there was a slight softening.
In the $180,000 to $274,999 segment homes for sale increased to 104 homes from 81 homes. Average number of sales per month increased to 9.17 homes from 8.75 homes. Days on market was extended to 153 days from 146 days. Remaining number months of inventory increased further to 11.34 months from 9.26 months, indicating further softening of this segment.
In the $275,000 to $449,999 segment we see much of the same slight softening. Current homes for sale increased to 85 homes from 70 homes. Average number of sales per month, selling price percentage of list price and average days on market all mostly remained the same. Remaining number of months inventory increased to 19.63 months from 16.17 months. Once again a slight softening of this segment.
In the final segment, $450,000 or greater, the homes for sale increased to 35 homes from 29 homes. Average number of sales per month remained the same. Selling price percentage of list price decreased 1% from 92%. Average days on market (127 to 148 days) and remaining number of months inventory (43.28 to 52.24) both increased. Please keep in mind that this segment is showing high fluxuations because of the low number of sales, but is has slightly softened.
Overall, through all segments we have seen slightly more softening of the real estate market, which is not uncommon for this time of year. Historically, as it gets hot through the summer, the real estate market gets cooler, with a pickup in mid-September.
Please remember tomorrow is a meeting about Green Path North. A LADWP representative, will be at Yucca Valley High School to discuss there point of view about Green Path North. The meeting is from 9 am until noon. Please show your support to “Stop Green Path North”!
If you are not familiar with the topic, visit the above link or the Hi Desert Star (Wednesday Edition) had some good articles about the topic.
Twentynine Palms Real Estate Market Update June 2008
Yesterday we touched on the Joshua Tree Market and a bit of the California Market. Today, we’ll touch on what is going on in Twentynine Palms.
Twentynine Palms has a couple of good things going on for the town. The Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center seems to be growing. Which always keep a new pool of renters and buyers coming in the local real estate market. Additionally, there is a new casino going in town. The NUWU Casino Resort & RV Park is being built by the 29 Palms Band of Mission Indians. (You can find out more about the tribe on the tribal government website). There are plenty of good investment opportunities in Twentynine Palms, including some great foreclosure listing that I have. (See Featured Listing below).
Let’s get to the meat and potatoes …
The year to year, June 2007 compared to June 2008, as far as number of sold homes and median price is mixed. For June 2008 there were 14 homes sold, compared 27 in 2007 (a decrease of 48%). Bucking the trend, only 2 of the 14 were short sales or bank owned sales. The median price for June 2007 was $153,953, and it increased 11% to $173,607 in June 2008.
Here is a look at the changes from May 2008 to June 2008:
Twentynine Palms Real Estate Summary for June 2008
Twentynine Palms Real Estate Summary for May 2008
In the less than $119,900 range, we saw an increase of homes for sale in the market, average days on market and remaining months of inventory. Average number of sales per month decreased. You would think this would be one of the stronger segments of the market, but from May to June this segment weakened a bit.
In the $120,000 to $179,999 segment, we also saw an increase in the number of homes for sale, average days on market and remaining month of inventory. Though the number of sales per month increase, as well as the sales price to listing price.
The $180,000 to $274,999 segment, followed the trends of the less than $119,999 segment.
The results of the $275,000 to $449,999 segment were mixed. Currently for sale homes remained the same, while the average number of sales per month increase slightly. Days on market increased while the remaining number of months inventory decrease.
There was no change in the greater than $450,000 segment.
In the next day or two, we will discuss the Yucca Valley Real Estate Market Update for June 2008.
Joshua Tree Real Estate Market Update for June 2008
Well summer is here, and it is hot and humid! Along with summer, at least the last couple of summers, comes a slow down in real estate sales for our local area. It seems like people don’t like to trek around in 100 plus degree weather. But should you decide to brave the heat to go house shopping … you could be rewarded with a great deal!
As far as the June real estate activity … as a whole … wow, I’m sure some are glad it is over. In Joshua Tree, there were seven homes sold last month, compared to sixteen the year before. (A decline of 56%). Of those seven homes, two were my listings, and 4 of the 7 were bank owned properties. The average selling price for June 2007 was $223,406, while this June averaged $198,357 (a decline of 11%). Please keep in mind that this is a comparison of June 2008 to June 2007.
Here is a look at June 2008 compared to May 2008:
Joshua Tree Real Estate Conditions for June 2008
Joshua Tree Real Estate Conditions for May 2008
Some items to note, is that the number of listings increased slightly in the more active three segments ($0 – 119,999, $120,000 – 179,999 and $180,000 – 274,999). In those segments, Average number of sales per month increased, the average days on market decreased and remaining number of month’s inventory decreased, in all except the middle segment. Selling price % of the listing price remained constant.
In the two upper segments results were mixed. It got slightly better for the $275,000 – 449,999 range while the $450,000 and up range continued to really struggle.
What we really want to watch in these tables is the “Remaining Number of Months Inventory”. Watch the way that that is tracking: down is good and up is not. (If we get back towards six months of inventory the market is considered balanced).
Tomorrow we’ll take a look at Twentynine Palms numbers.
California Association of Realtors® Market Outlook
On July 2nd, I attended our local Association of Realtors® luncheon with Leslie Appleton-Young as the keynote speaker. Ms. Appleton-Young is the Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors® (CAR). She was presenting her California Real Estate Market Outlook as well as touching on Riverside and San Bernardino counties specifically.
There was a lot of good information in her presentation. I am going to share some of this information which is very helpful in putting all this real estate stuff in perspective.
If you look at a graph of the number of sold detached homes from 1970 – 2008 you will see our cyclical real estate market goes through a series of ups and downs nearly every decade. How’s the current downturn compare to previous dips?
1978 – 1982: We saw a 61% decline in the number of sales, while the median price continued a slow and shallow climb.
1988 – 1992: There was a 25% decline in sales, and the median price remained stagnant or flat.
2005 – 2008 (to date): So far we have weathered a 45% decrease in sales. The median price held well until October 2007, at which point we have seen a sharp decline.
According to Ms. Appleton-Young, the number of sales (units sold) peaked in May 2005 and has bottomed out in October of 2007. There was a small dip in March of 2008, but we have seen gains in April and May. That is some good news! Prices are still declining, and will hopefully stabilize soon, and we still face pressure from the number of foreclosures on the market.
In January 2008 the unsold inventory (the number of homes currently for sale) peaked at approximately 17 months. In May of 2008 the unsold inventory stood at 8.4 months. Unsold inventory represents, at the current rate of sales per month, it would take this many months to sell the currently for sale homes, if nothing changed. Please keep in mind that this is for California as a whole. That is a bit more good news.
Some more good news is that in 2006/7 the first time buyer affordability rate was in the mid-20% range. With the declining prices, that rate has climbed into the mid-40% range.
We are not there yet, but things are starting to get better. We are still facing pressure from tight credit (lack of funds to loan), tighter lending/underwriting standards and lack of buyer confidence, but things are starting to look better.
Additionally, The Summer Tree Institute presents a new series, “Desert Landscape Workshops”. The workshops will be the 4th Saturday of each month from 10 am to noon, July through Novemeber 2008.
7/26 – Designing & Planning Your Landscape (Yucca Valley Community Center
8/23 – Soil, Mulch & Planning (Joshua Tree Community Center)
9/27 – Plant Selection (Yucca Valley Community Center)
10/25 – Irrigation (Joshua Tree Community Center)
11/22 – Maintenance (Yucca Valley Community Center)
You’re thinking of buying your first home, buying a second home, or buying a investment property … “I’m not quite ready … I’m waiting for the market to settle (read go down more) a bit,” you reply.
You are sitting on a very crowded fence!
Here are some things to consider about the current real estate market, and why it is a good time to buy. And no … I’m not just blowing smoke up your rear.
First off, timing the market is extremely difficult. In fact, if you nailed the top or bottom … you got lucky. Yes you can get close, but you can also miss out on a good deal that was once there. Think about it, if you could time the market, many of us real estate professionals would be retired right now.
The inventory of unsold homes in Joshua Tree, Twentynine Palms, Yucca Valley, the rest of the Morongo Basin, as well as many areas in the country are at historic highs. You, as a buyer have a huge selection of homes to choose from. In our area, if you take out the extremes at either end, we have about 10+ months of inventory.
Prices on these available homes, all except for the few who haven’t seen the writing on the wall, have dropped dramatically in the last 18 months. Sometimes by as much as 20 – 30 % from the highs of the boom market. Builders are practically giving their unsold new homes away … OK they are still making some money, but it is amazing how inexpensive you can get a new home for these days. Then there are “short sale” properties, that are usually a good deal, but do your research. A short sale home is a home that is being sold for less than the mortgage amount and requires bank approval. Add into the mix, especially in this area, the ever growing list of foreclosed/bank-owned properties. You may have to kiss some frogs, but there are some real princes of foreclosed properties available at some very attractive prices. Others just need a bit of cosmetic work.
Are prices going to go down more? Most likely yes they are going to go down more at least in the next six months. But if you are buying a home for the right reasons: 1) you plan on living in it for a while, at least 3 -5 years and 2) you are not buying it to just flip the property, then you are probably going to do well in the long run. The key being long-term! Housing is a long-term investment.
Then it comes to the home loan, at least for most of us. And this is the important part!
First off, it is a huge misconception that the mortgage interest rates are tied to the federal prime interest rate. They are NOT. Prime rate may influence mortgage rates, but the major factor of mortgage rates is the availability of money to lend. And with all the recent problems in the mortgage market, investors are scared to put money in the pot.
Next, it has become much more difficult to qualify for a loan. 100% loans are far and few. Stated income … good luck. With tightening money levels, this will get more difficult. Not to mention appraisers are very conservative, in order to protect their backsides.
Because of all this, mortgage rates have been rising from the low’s of earlier this year. According to Freddie Mac, last weeks average 30yr fixed rate average was 6.45%, compared to the week ending 1/24/08 which was 5.48%. Most of the analyst’s believe we will see continued gradual rate increases.
In the long run, I think you would see that if you could find a good home that meets your needs now. And you can get a good deal on the purchase, that you should buy now. You are better off buying at today’s interest rates, than waiting for the home to go down in price more and paying a higher interest rate.
Just somethings to think about while you’re up on the fence.
Please feel free to comment, email or call if you would like to discuss this more.
For all of you in California …. Don’t forget tomorrow is the day that it becomes law that you must use a hands-free device with your mobile phone while driving.
YOUTH SUMMER ARTS PROGRAM June 24 – July 3, 2008 @ 9:00AM TICKETS: $84 Youth
The Academy of Learning Arts is proud to offer group instruction in Drawing, Music, and Movement this summer at the Hi-Desert Cultural Center.• Learn to draw a house of the future or a wild animal.
• Use your voice to sing melodies, harmonies, and rounds.
• Step lively with easy dances from around the world.
• Join us for some healthy, creative learning!
This youth summer arts program will be June 24, 25, 26 and July 1, 2, 3 from 9am to 11am at the Hi-Desert Cultural Center’s Palmer Performance Hall in Joshua Tree.
When prepping your windows to paint the frames, be sure to use painter’s tape. The wrong type of tape will continute to stick to your window and no amount of window cleaning will remove the residue. Fortunately for you, cleaning windows with WD40 will remove any adhesive residue left behind by masking and other tapes. Simply spray on and wipe off.
Realtor® vs. Real Estate Agent …. there’s a difference?
Yes! There is a big difference. Though not many people, especially those buying and selling real estate, know there is a difference. Realtors® and Real Estate Agents are seen as interchangable. True they both hold a real estate license to represent someone in a real estate transaction, but they start to diverge from there.
In order to call yourself a Realtor® you must be a member of the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), and in many cases Realtors® belong to the state organization (i.e. California Association of Realtors®) and a local association (i.e. Desert Communities Association of Realtors®). As a member of NAR you must subscribe to the Realtors® Code of Ethics. The Realtors® Code of Ethics contains 17 Articles of Standards, which upon you are to conduct your business in regards to 1) Duties to Clients and Customers, 2) Duties to the Public and 3) Duties to Realtors®. The Golden Rule, “Whatsoever ye would that others should do to you, do ye even so to them,” is the underlining wisdom. These standards are intended to establish obligations higher than the rule of law, and are strictly enforced at the local level.
The National Association of Realtors® publishes a customer handout, “Why You Should Work With A Realtor®,” which I will share with you:
Why You Should Work With a REALTOR®
Not all real estate practitioners are REALTORS®. The term REALTOR® is a registered trademark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Here are five reasons why it pays to work with a REALTOR®.
1. You’ll have an expert to guide you through the process.Buying or selling a home usually requires disclosure forms, inspection reports, mortgage documents, insurance policies, deeds, and multi-page settlement statements. A knowledgeable expert will help you prepare the best deal, and avoid delays or costly mistakes.
2. Get objective information and opinions.REALTORS® can provide local community information on utilities, zoning, schools, and more. They’ll also be able to provide objective information about each property. A professional will be able to help you answer these two important questions: Will the property provide the environment I want for a home or investment? Second, will the property have resale value when I am ready to sell?
3. Find the best property out there. Sometimes the property you are seeking is available but not actively advertised in the market, and it will take some investigation by your REALTOR® to find all available properties.
4. Benefit from their negotiating experience. There are many negotiating factors, including but not limited to price, financing, terms, date of possession, and inclusion or exclusion of repairs, furnishings, or equipment. In addition, the purchase agreement should provide a period of time for you to complete appropriate inspections and investigations of the property before you are bound to complete the purchase. Your agent can advise you as to which investigations and inspections are recommended or required.
5. Property marketing power. Real estate doesn’t sell due to advertising alone. In fact, a large share of real estate sales comes as the result of a practitioner’s contacts through previous clients, referrals, friends, and family. When a property is marketed with the help of a REALTOR®, you do not have to allow strangers into your home. Your REALTOR® will generally prescreen and accompany qualified prospects through your property.
6. Real estate has its own language.If you don’t know a CMA from a PUD, you can understand why it’s important to work with a professional who is immersed in the industry and knows the real estate language.
7. REALTORS® have done it before. Most people buy and sell only a few homes in a lifetime, usually with quite a few years in between each purchase. And even if you’ve done it before, laws and regulations change. REALTORS®, on the other hand, handle hundreds of real estate transactions over the course of their career. Having an expert on your side is critical.
8. Buying and selling is emotional. A home often symbolizes family, rest, and security — it’s not just four walls and a roof. Because of this, home buying and selling can be an emotional undertaking. And for most people, a home is the biggest purchase they’ll ever make. Having a concerned, but objective, third party helps you stay focused on both the emotional and financial issues most important to you.
9. Ethical treatment. Every member of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® makes a commitment to adhere to a strict Code of Ethics, which is based on professionalism and protection of the public. As a customer of a REALTOR®, you can expect honest and ethical treatment in all transaction-related matters. It is mandatory for REALTORS® to take the Code of Ethics orientation and they are also required to complete a refresher course every four years.
By the way, I just finished my refresher in the Code of Ethics.
Cozy brand new 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Joshua Tree. Very open floor plan, with beautiful wood laminate floors, carpet in bedrooms, tile in the bathrooms and wood fenced backyard. Large oversized windows in the living room, that boast awesome views of downtown Joshua Tree and San Gorgonio Mountain. Home is in one of the few natural gas neighborhoods. This is a wonderful new home, that is waiting for you to put your touch on it. With a price like this you can’t afford not to take a look at it … call today to preview this home!
For more information and photos of this home and many others, visit www.joshuatreeagent.com and select “Featured Listings”.
It is impossible to not hear some news about the real estate market being in trouble. It’s a nightly staple on the major news networks. The problem with most of these stories is their generic nature.
Many potential buyers are just sitting on the fence (how many times have you heard that phrase?) waiting for the stars to align or for the bottom of the market. Timing the market is extremely difficult, and the people who nailed the top or bottom most likely just got lucky. But you can make an educated and smart purchase with the right information.
If you’re buying for the right reasons, you plan on living in the property for a while, it is a long-term investment and you make a smart purchase (you get a good deal), then it is very unlikely that you are going to get financially hurt.
So what is going on in the Joshua Tree Real Estate Market? (By the way, I will be addressing the Twentynine Palms & Yucca Valley Markets in coming updates). Let’s take a look at some numbers.
In the first five months of this year (through 5/31/08, based on local MLS data) there were 60 homes sold in Joshua Tree. At least 12 of these sales were REO (Real Estate Owned – Bank Owned) or short sale (selling the property for less than the loan amount) properties. It may very well be more, but our MLS system didn’t track REO/Short Sale properties from the beginning of the year. As of 5/31/08 there were 146 homes for sale in Joshua Tree. Based on the above information, there is 12.16 months of inventory. (If there were no other homes listed, it would take 12 months to sell the current homes on the market, based on current average sales). That is the short version.
Here is a little more detail:
Month: May 2008
Price Range
Current # of Listings
Avg. # of Sales/Month
Selling Price % of List Price
Avg. Days on Market
Remaining # Months Inventory
< $119,999
38
3.92
88%
112
9.69
$120,000 – $179,999
40
3.92
95%
142
10.20
$180,000 – $274,999
38
2.83
96%
200
13.43
$275,000 – $449,999
24
1.75
97%
98
13.71
> $450,000
6
0.17
92%
134
35.29
Previous Month’s Statistics
Price Range
Current # of Listings
Avg. # of Sales/Month
Selling Price % of List Price
Avg. Days on Market
Remaining # Months Inventory
< $119,999
26
3.33
89.00%
112
7.80
$120,000 – $179,999
32
4.00
96.00%
138
8.50
$180,000 – $274,999
28
2.83
96.00%
193
9.89
$275,000 – $449,999
21
1.83
97.00%
112
11.48
> $450,000
6
0.17
92.00%
134
35.29
What we have above is the market statistics from five price segments for May 2008 compared to April 2008. The “Current # of Listings” is from the end of the respective month. The four other columns are data for the preceding year from the end of that month.
One of the key figures to watch here is the “Remaining # of Months Inventory”. In general, it is considered a buyer’s market in excess of 6 months and a seller’s market under 6 months. You can see in all segments that we are in a buyer’s market. Additionally, you want to watch what way this inventory is tracking. For example, all the segments, except the >$450,000, have risen in inventory from April 2008 to May 2008, making it a bit more difficult for sellers. Conversely … better for buyers.
The two most active segments are the <$119,999 up to $179,999. Partially because of the number of foreclosures and short sales in these segments. These price ranges include some of your best deals. On a side note, I have some very good foreclosure listings with more coming, so keep an eye on these updates and the “Featured Listings” section on my website (www.joshuatreeagent.com).
Besides high inventory levels, another major factor influencing the market (beside the obvious low consumer confidence) is tighter lending standards. If you are getting a loan for your purchase, which the majority of us do, you first must get through the appraisal. And maybe a second appraisal right before closing. The appraisers are being ultra-conservative in this downward market. Not to mention appraisals are really tough with the lack of sales and good comparable properties.
Then getting through underwriting is another chore. Your loan officer/mortgage broker, escrow officer, title officer and your Realtor will be instrumental in getting through this portion of the escrow process. Please be patient and understanding when you have are asked for the 1,000th time for more information.
The pendulum has swung the other way!
If you would like to discuss this information further, please feel free to call, email or comment.
Yucca Valley Foreclosure. This home is close to schools, parks and shopping. If your looking for a good bargin, this is it. Good starter home, second home, or investment. Tile floors, natural gas, large lot and fully fenced. Don’t end your search without previewing this home!. Call today for more details and preview appointment.
For more information and photos of this home and many others, visit www.joshuatreeagent.com and select “Featured Listings”.
To remove the foul odor from your washing machine let the machine fill with water and when it starts to agitate add about three cups of white vinegar, with a half cup of baking soda. Let the machine run through it’s cycles and it will not only get rid of the odor, but will also clean the machine.
Cozy brand new 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Joshua Tree. Very open floor plan, with beautiful wood laminate floors, carpet in bedrooms, tile in the bathrooms and wood fenced backyard. Large oversized windows in the living room, that boast awesome views of downtown Joshua Tree and San Gorgonio Mountain. Home is in one of the few natural gas neighborhoods. This is a wonderful new home, that is waiting for you to put your touch on it. With a price like this you can’t afford not to take a look at it … call today to preview this home!
For more information and photos of this home and many others, visit www.joshuatreeagent.com and select “Featured Listings”.
Gum on the carpet can leave behind a sticky, gooey mess! Don’t panic if you have to remove carpet stains made by gum, however. It’s quite easy. Spray the area with WD-40, or smear with peanut butter and the gum will come right out. There may be a spot left behind from the dye in the gum. Cleaning carpet stains such as this is easy too. All you have to do is blot with a little club soda. No one will ever have to know!
Dave Haworth, Realtor ®
JT Village Realty
Mobile: 760.898.4188
Office: 760.366.8642
Fax: 760.366.0111
Email: dave@jtvillagerealty.com
